On September 12, the Worldwide Car Exhibition (Internationale Automobilausstellung – IAA 2019) commerce truthful for mobility, transport and logistics opens its doorways in Frankfurt, Germany. Not way back, the IAA was the main commerce truthful for the entire vehicle world. This 12 months, the time-honored truthful is just not solely marked by a crisis-ridden sector however seems extra like a nationwide German present. Why? Many producers usually are not exhibiting. For instance, Hyundai and Honda are the one “massive” Asian manufacturers at this 12 months’s truthful. Similar to Peugeot, Mazda, Volvo and Toyota, many exhibitors have turned their again on the standard automotive present. However much more severe: The entire automotive business is in the midst of a extreme disaster.
The 12 months 2019 has up to now been marked by dangerous information for automotive business. Daimler slips into the pink, and Ford suffers a droop in earnings. Job cuts at suppliers, corresponding to Bosch, whereas Continental is even contemplating closing total vegetation, and the Tesla share has been dealing with arduous instances. The provider business particularly is struggling and is in a downturn. The declining gross sales in China, the world’s largest automotive market, has hit firms arduous, and different markets are additionally weakening. On the identical time, firms have to speculate big sums in future know-how. Within the first half of 2019, automobile manufacturing fell by 5 % year-over-year to 46 million models (48.four million models in 2018). World demand within the automotive market is weakening. The producers’ stability sheets present correspondingly weak figures. The earnings of the 16 largest vehicle teams fell considerably. Solely 4 firms offered extra new vehicles than a 12 months in the past: Mitsubishi, Honda, Toyota, and BMW.
2018 was a turning level for the Chinese language automotive market and the Chinese language business; after steady progress within the final 28 years, the market started to shrink for the primary time in the midst of final 12 months, leading to a lower of 5.8% for 2018 as a complete. And this case continued in 2019. The market contracted by one other 13% within the first half of 2019. Because of the robust decline in gross sales, a very powerful vehicle producers considerably lowered their investments, which additionally had a detrimental impression on the automation market.
However not solely the Chinese language vehicle market is struggling. The worldwide automotive business is experiencing a gross sales and revenue disaster, due primarily to the present financial scenario. These and different detrimental headlines in latest weeks have dampened the anticipation of the IAA. There is no such thing as a scarcity of subjects. The commerce and foreign money dispute between the superpowers USA and China are simply as a lot of an issue for the business as the troubles regarding the unsolved points across the impending Brexit.
Alternatively, the worldwide e-car market is booming. In response to information from the Middle Automotive Administration (CAM), over 600,000 electrical and plug-in hybrids had been registered within the first half of 2019, 52 % greater than in the identical interval final 12 months. The second-largest e-automotive market within the first six months was the USA with nearly 150,000 new registrations and progress of 20 %. Third place went to Germany, the place 41 % extra e-cars had been registered than in the identical interval a 12 months in the past, taking the third spot from Norway. In response to a joint examine just lately performed by the Fraunhofer Institute and Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik, German politics and business ought to: “…as a substitute of focusing an excessive amount of on electromobility, they need to press forward with the enlargement of the hydrogen infrastructure on the identical time. This can be a main method of saving cash within the mobility transition (Verkehrswende): infrastructure prices could possibly be lowered by as much as six billion euros if the roughly 40 million zero-emission vehicles, deliberate for 2050, had been to be powered half by batteries and half by gas cells.”
At ARC, we’re additionally of the opinion that diversification in drive know-how is essential and the best solution to go. Because the outdated saying goes: Don’t put all of your eggs in a single basket. Similar to in automation know-how, “there’s a appropriate ‘instrument’ for each particular activity and never a single ‘holy grail’“, says ARC’s Fabian Wanke.